How Belgium approaches the match
I think Belgium come in with a better footballing base. Across the tournament they have scored 6 and conceded only 2, with 1.9 xG per game, 23.3 shots, 65% possession and 13.7 chances created. That is not random production, that is territorial control. The big change came in the 5-1 against New Zealand, when the attack finally looked free and connected. De Bruyne pulled strings, Trossard was sharper in central zones, and Lukaku came off the bench to score.
For me, Belgium’s biggest strength is rhythm control. They can slow the match, pin Senegal back, and keep the ball in the zones where De Bruyne hurts teams most. Their weakness is that they were blunt in the first two group matches, and if they become static again, Senegal will welcome the spaces in transition. Debast has only resumed partial training, so I still look at Belgium’s defensive depth with some caution. The likely plan is obvious, dominate the ball, force Senegal’s back line to defend wave after wave, and stop the game becoming a sprint contest.
How Senegal approaches the match
Senegal are dangerous, but they are also volatile. They have scored 8 goals in the tournament, average 2.7 per game, take 17.7 shots, and create 13.0 chances. Sarr is in strong form with 3 goals, Ndiaye has supplied 2 assists, and Mané remains the player who can turn a transition into panic. That 5-0 over Iraq restored belief, but I do not overrate it because it came against 10 men and after two losses.
The issue is defensive stability. Senegal conceded 3 to France and 3 to Norway, and that matters against a side with Belgium’s creators. Koulibaly and Niakhaté can be exposed if the midfield screen is bypassed too easily. Mendy missed the Iraq game with a knee injury, so goalkeeper uncertainty is another layer in my reading. Senegal have enough pace and physical force to hurt Belgium, and their bench is useful for a long match, but their route to success is a more selective press and cleaner transitions, not an open exchange.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
If it is level, we go to two extra periods of 15 minutes, then penalties if needed. In that scenario I slightly prefer Belgium’s control profile. They look better built to manage long stretches, and Courtois gives calm in goal. Senegal’s pace can still become even more dangerous against tired full-backs, but extra time usually rewards structure and decision-making. Substitutions will matter, especially Belgium’s ability to change the front line with Lukaku or alter the attacking map around De Bruyne and Trossard. For penalties, I trust Belgium’s goalkeeper situation more, while Senegal’s confidence depends a lot on whether Mendy is fit enough to return.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
My expected scenario is Belgium controlling the ball and territory, with Senegal threatening whenever they can release Sarr or Mané early. The market-implied picture, roughly 46% Belgium, 31% draw, 27% Senegal, feels fair to me. My main bet is Belgium to win in regular time at 2.15. My alternative is Both Teams To Score, Yes at 1.95-2.00, because Senegal carry enough pace and shot volume to punish even a stronger favourite.
The probable score after 90 minutes is 2-1 to Belgium. I also think extra time has a live chance because the draw at 3.17 is not inflated. Still, if I have to choose the team to advance, I stay with Belgium. They defend better, control matches better, and Senegal’s defensive record gives Belgium too many paths to the winning moment.