How USA approaches the match
Pochettino's side plays fast, vertical, and physical. Ten goals in four matches is no accident: Pulisic carries, McKennie and Tillman break lines, and the set-piece routines have produced four goals, the most at the tournament. Defensively they have matured, holding Bosnia to 0.25 xG while a man down, though the Türkiye defeat exposed their transition frailty.
The headache is up front. Balogun, scorer of three tournament goals, is suspended after his red card against Bosnia. Pepi or Wright must fill in, which reduces the depth-run threat that made the USA so dangerous on the counter. Pulisic's calf load is worth monitoring too. The plan is clear: press early, feed off the crowd, and hit Belgium before they settle.
How Belgium approaches the match
Belgium are a paradox. Nine goals scored but two dreary group draws, then an explosion of five against New Zealand and a heroic comeback against Senegal. De Bruyne still dictates, Trossard has created more chances than anyone at the tournament, Doku terrifies full-backs, and Lukaku lurks for the finish. Tielemans adds late runs and buried the decisive penalty against Senegal.
The concern is obvious. They start slowly, they are vulnerable to pace in behind, and the ageing core has just played 120 draining minutes. Courtois remains the ultimate safety net, and the bench carries Lukébakio and Meunier for depth. Garcia will want to survive the opening storm, then let quality decide.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
Level after ninety and we go to two fifteen-minute periods, then penalties if nobody breaks through. Extra time favours fresh legs and calm heads. Belgium's recent 120-minute run cuts both ways: emotional belief, but tired bodies. The USA are younger and more energetic, which matters late. On penalties, Courtois is elite and Tielemans is ice-cold from the spot, giving Belgium a clear edge in a shootout against Freese.
Match prediction USA vs Belgium (7 July 2026)
I expect an open, high-tempo affair. The USA will start fast and lean on set pieces; Belgium will grow into it through De Bruyne and Trossard between the lines. Both defences have leaked, and both attacks are scoring freely. My probabilities sit close to the market: USA around 38%, draw 27%, Belgium 35% in regular time.
The value lives in the goals markets. Both teams to score at 1.57 fits perfectly given the USA have scored in every match and Belgium just put eight past their last two opponents. Over 2.5 at 1.77 is the natural alternative. My score line is USA 2-1 after 90 minutes, though extra time is a real risk given how tight this is.
For qualification I lean fractionally toward Belgium's shootout pedigree, but the home crowd and momentum make the USA the pick in normal time. Main call: both teams to score.