How Spain approaches the match
Five matches, zero goals conceded. That single number tells you almost everything about Luis de la Fuente’s Spain. Nine scored, none allowed, a clean sheet built on possession rather than pure defending. Against Portugal, Spain produced 1.77 xG from 15 attempts and limited their rivals to 0.60 xG with no second-half shot on target. That is control, not luck.
The 4-2-3-1 runs through Rodri and Pedri, with Olmo pulling strings behind Oyarzabal, the tournament’s four-goal reference striker. Yamal on the right is a genuine 1v1 weapon and a must-start. Nico Williams carries fitness doubts, and Merino remains a proven impact option after his late Portugal winner. The concern is subtle: Spain have won tight, but they have not been forced to chase chaos. If they concede first, that comfort disappears.
How Belgium approaches the match
Rudi Garcia’s side finally clicked against the USA, generating 2.15 xG from 15 shots while conceding only 0.67. De Ketelaere shone as a centre-forward with two goals and an assist, and the balance looked far sharper. Belgium have scored 13 but conceded five, and crucially they have leaked goals in three straight matches.
The selection puzzle is huge. De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku were held back against the USA, and Garcia must decide between star power and structure. The bigger blow is Amadou Onana’s serious knee injury, which strips Belgium of ball-winning and athletic cover in midfield, exactly where Spain want to dominate. Courtois remains an elite last line, and the bench offers real firepower for a long night.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
A level game brings two 15-minute extra periods, and penalties if nobody blinks. Here the readings diverge. Belgium already survived extra time against Senegal, which means fresher legs matter and Spain’s settled rotation could pay off. Depth favours Belgium in raw attacking names, but Spain’s control tends to smother tired matches. On penalties, Courtois is a genuine equaliser against Unai Simon, so I would not lean heavily on either side from twelve yards.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
I expect Spain to own the ball, pin Belgium’s reshaped midfield and force those dangerous attackers to defend. Belgium’s route is transition into the channels behind the full-backs, De Bruyne feeding runners, Lukaku attacking crosses. If Spain strike first, this becomes a slow, suffocating 1-0. If Belgium score first, it cracks open.
My probabilities sit near Spain 59%, draw 24%, Belgium 17%. The main pick is Spain win at 1.62, justified by the clean-sheet run, midfield superiority and Onana’s absence. For those wanting an alternative, Under 2.5 at 2.00 has clear logic given Spain’s stinginess, though Belgium’s recent goals add variance. Probable score: Spain 1-0. Extra time feels realistic at roughly one chance in four, so if you want the safer route, Spain to advance carries the day. My leaning is Spain, carefully staked.