How Germany approaches the match
Nagelsmann’s side is a possession monster: 67% average possession, 17.7 shots and 14.3 chances created per game, backed by a healthy 2.2 xG. Deniz Undav leads the scoring with 3 goals despite often coming off the bench, Havertz tops the xG charts at 1.7, and Kimmich pulls the strings. The attacking quartet of Wirtz, Musiala, Sané and Havertz has not even peaked yet, according to the German press.
The worry is at the back. Germany conceded in all three group games, and Ecuador exposed exactly the flaw Paraguay will target: turnovers in dangerous areas and exposed full-backs. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with an ankle problem, while Nathaniel Brown was expected to recover. Expect a 4-2-3-1 with relentless territorial dominance and heavy corner pressure, where Germany win 6.2 corners per match.
How Paraguay approaches the match
Gustavo Alfaro has built a pragmatic, physically robust unit that thrives without the ball. The numbers are humble: 0.5 xG, 7.3 shots and just 38% possession per game. Julio Enciso is the creative spark and main ball-carrier, while Miguel Almirón returns from suspension to add transition threat.
The defensive momentum is real, two clean sheets in a row, but the attacking volume is dangerously thin and the striker often ends up isolated. Diego Gómez is suspended through yellow cards, and Omar Alderete is an injury concern, which weakens an already stretched squad. Expect a deep 5-3-2, Cubas and Gustavo Gómez shielding the back line, hoping to convert German mistakes into rare counters.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
A draw sends us to two 15-minute extra periods, and if still level, a penalty shootout. Here Germany’s superior bench depth matters: Undav, fresh attacking legs, and more game-changers than Alfaro can offer. Paraguay’s physical resilience could drag the game deep, but fatigue tends to crack low blocks late. On penalties, Germany’s individual quality and set-piece composure give them the edge, though shootouts always flatten the gap.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
I see a familiar pattern: Germany monopolising the ball, Paraguay defending in numbers and waiting for one Enciso break. Market-implied probabilities sit around Germany 74%, draw 18%, Paraguay 9%, and the Dimers model is similar. The most logical scoreline is 2-0 Germany, which the model also favours.
My main lean is Germany win at 1.29, a short but justified price given the gulf in xG and chance creation. For more value I like Both Teams To Score No at 1.66, leaning on Paraguay’s minimal output and clean-sheet form. Under 2.5 at 2.20 is the bolder play if you expect a slow, frustrating grind before a late breakthrough.
Extra time probability is moderate, perhaps 18 to 20%, but I expect Germany to break the block before the hour. My final call: Germany advance to the Round of 16, most likely in regular time, with a 2-0 result the standout scenario.